Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
