A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
